Watching stocks over the short-term is often an experiment in futility. On December 22nd 2014 we looked back at the state of Games Workshop's stock price and general financial health. In the last report, GW had just selected a new CEO and now with a barely a few weeks into his new job let us look at the mess Kirby left him.
This post will look at two things. Just how well the stock held up year to year and what if anything changed with the release of the half-year report.
Since the last report global stocks have uniformly collapsed do to fears of a slow down, in addition oil prices helping the average consumer, but continue to spook investors. As it pertains to GW which is tired to consumer buying power; in theory should put them in a better position than other sectors when it comes to stock volatility.
Before we look at the last 20 days or so, lets see where GW stands one year removed from the "Great January Crash" of 2014.
Year to this date GW went into free-fall, and one year later the stock is still down 31%, a mere 5% improvement from their lowest low.
GW moving forward shouldn't really have any "extra" costs for 2015. The website, lawsuit, and restructuring are all done, all they have to do is maintain production and produce products gamers want at a reasonable cost. Last year might have been a shock to the system, but 2015 is really make or break because there is no more excuses going forward.
The biggest news and giving us a hint on how things are looking going forward is the Half Yearly Report.
Let us see how the stock has performed since our last post, including this new data.
The stock price is down only 4% since the last post, but if you look at the last couple days there really hasn't been any change. If you read the report you see the shrinking profits of about 7%, this isn't the doom and gloom report many Internet trolls had hoped for. It is still bad, just not catastrophic. Like I said the excuses are now over, if things don't at least break even by the next report, GW could be in for a world of hurt.
So why isn't the stock down though after the report?
Well as you most of you should know, it comes down to the Dividend. Since GW has no investors who actually care about the products they sell, it is incumbent on them always send out thank you cards in the form of dividend checks. This time around they made sure to give out an unhealthy dividend. You can comb over the numbers all you want and make any story you want, but for me the biggest news comes from these few lines...
This channel showed growth in North America, Australia and the UK, offset by larger declines in non-strategic accounts and magazine sales. The net effect was a decline of 5.1% (£1.2 million).
This beautiful nugget illustrates what everyone said the second it happened. People stopped buying White Dwarf when it went weekly and never bothered to buy Warhammer Visions. I can only imagine what the magazine sales look like without the help of those other channels!
Let us see next month after this report really sinks in and find out if GW actually starts to turn things around.
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