Hi,
The meta is changing so rapidly now that the codex releases are so much faster than before. I'm particularly feeling this as I paint so slow. One thing I can do is look at the army composition at big (and competitive) tournaments to see where things are going. Another tip is listening to tournament report podcasts.
Anyway this weekend is the Mayhem tournament in Tolworth (London) which just posted the make-up of the armies attending on Facebook. I haven't been for a few years, but the tournament is pretty competitive, and is the type of competitive tournament I will hopefully work my way up to playing during 2014. Here's the make-up of their tournament from their Facebook post:
"Mayhem Tournament
All the army lists are in (bar 2) and a well represented array of armies
9 Eldar (both varieties)
8 Daemons
8 Necron
6 Tau (both varieties)
4 IG
3 Space Wolves
3 Blood Angel
2 Space Marine
2 CSM
2 Grey Knight
1 Ork
1 Tyranid
1 Dark Angel
1 Dark Eldar
21 of you decided to take Allies with Space Marines being most popular (5) followed by Guard (4) Space wolves and CSM (both 3)"
With all tournament army spreads it has to be taken with a pinch of salt, and any army should be given a +2/-2 margin of error. However I guess none of us are surprised by the top 4 armies, particular the rise in Eldar now the codex has been out for a while. I expect the next big rise to be marines, as people paint up bikes and the new anti air tanks.
You are still likely to face a lot of MEQ it's just spread between the codexs (11 Imperial MEQ, plus 2 more CSM), and as said this will only rise when marines increase in popularity.
An interesting point is that there are more CSM allies than there are CSM primary detachments, and I bet the helldrake is likely to be in all the CSM allies and feature heavily in the CSM primary detachments.
As one of my main armies rises in popularity (Tau) the other sinks towards the bottom (Dark Eldar). Dark Eldar really stuggle against both Tau & Eldar, and the general trend towards multiple shot mid strength weaponry to strip hull points, because while they are good to strip hull points from regular vehicles these weapons murder Dark Eldar vehicles. On the plus side opponents will be less likely to be ready to face the speed of the Dark Eldar (let alone the fearsome early shooting they can put out against an unprepared opponent). A more common occurrence will be that Dark Eldar are underestimated, helping the Dark Eldar hopefully punch above their weight.
What do you think of where the meta is moving to at the moment. Does your army have the tools to deal with top lists while still being balanced enough to take on other lists ?
Rathstar